Supply and demand characteristics and scenario analysis of coastal wetland ecosystem services in Hebei Province
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摘要: 滨海湿地处于海陆生态系统交错地带, 研究湿地面积变化带来的生态系统服务和人类福祉的变化, 可为湿地生态系统服务提升、近海岸生态环境保护与生态安全管理提供参考。本文通过分析河北滨海湿地面积变化, 对2000—2020年河北滨海湿地生态系统服务的供给量和社会对湿地生态系统服务需求量进行评估, 并以供需比定量分析了滨海湿地生态系统服务供需特征, 最后利用情景分析预测了2030年河北滨海湿地供需安全。结果表明: 1)河北滨海湿地生态安全受到威胁, 主要表现为自然湿地面积和湿地生态廊道面积减少。2)除水产品供给服务增加外, 河北滨海湿地的水资源供给、净化环境、调节洪水、固碳、释氧和美学景观等生态系统服务供给量均降低, 河北滨海区社会对湿地生态系统服务需求量均呈增加趋势。3)河北滨海湿地面积仅占河北滨海区全域面积的6.3%, 但其提供的调节洪水服务可以满足河北滨海区全域对其需求。4)河北滨海湿地调节洪水服务的生态安全状况较好, 水产品供给服务、水资源供给服务和净化环境服务是目前需要重点关注的生态安全问题, 是未来可能影响河北滨海湿地生态安全的隐患, 固碳、释氧和美学景观服务是未来河北滨海湿地生态安全发展中的短板。5)情景分析下, 湿地严格保护情景下生态系统服务供给量和供需比最高, 是河北滨海湿地生态系统未来发展的最好情景模式。Abstract: Coastal wetlands are located in ecotones of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the changes in ecosystem services and human well-being caused by wetland areas can provide a reference for improving wetland ecosystem services, protecting coastal ecological environments, and managing ecological security. This study analyzed the changes in the coastal wetland areas in the Hebei Province, evaluated the supply of ecosystem services and the social demand for wetland ecosystem services in Hebei Province from 2000 to 2020, and quantitatively analyzed the supply and demand characteristics of coastal wetland ecosystem services based on the supply and demand ratio. Finally, a scenario analysis was used to predict the supply and demand security of coastal wetlands in the Hebei Province by 2030. The results show that: 1) the ecological security of coastal wetlands in Hebei is threatened, mainly manifested by a reduction in natural wetland areas and wetland ecological corridors. 2) In addition to the increase in aquatic product supply service, the supply of ecosystem services, such as the water resource supply, environmental purification, flood regulation, carbon sequestration, oxygen release, and aesthetic landscapes in the Hebei coastal wetlands, has decreased. The demand for wetland ecosystem services by society in the Hebei coastal area has increased. 3) Coastal wetlands in Hebei account for only 6.3% of the total coastal area. Nevertheless, the flood regulation services that they provide meet the needs of the entire coastal area in Hebei. 4) Good ecological security status of the flood regulation services is present in the Hebei coastal wetlands. Aquatic product supply, water resource supply, and environmental purification services are currently key ecological security issues that require focus and are potential hazards that may affect the future ecological security of the Hebei coastal wetlands. Carbon sequestration, oxygen release, and aesthetic landscape services are shortcomings in the future development of ecological security in the Hebei coastal wetlands. 5) Under the scenario analysis, the scenario of strict wetland protection has the highest supply and demand ratio of ecosystem services, which is the best scenario model for the future development of the coastal wetland ecosystem in Hebei.
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Keywords:
- Coastal wetland /
- Ecosystem services /
- Supply demand ratio /
- Scenario analysis /
- Ecological safety
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图 1 河北滨海区及其土地利用特征示意图
Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the location and land use types of the coastal district in Hebei Province
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图 2 2000—2020年河北滨海湿地生态系统服务供给量变化率
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务、文化服务; AP、WR、PW、RF、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给、水资源供给、净化水质、调节洪水、固碳、释氧和美学景观。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply, water resource supply, water purification, flood regulation, carbon fixation, oxygen release and aesthetic landscape.
Figure 2. Change rates of ecosystem service supply of Hebei coastal wetland ecosystem from 2000 to 2020
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图 3 2000年和2020年河北滨海湿地不同湿地类型的不同生态系统服务的供给量
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务和文化服务; AP 、WR 、PW、RF 、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给(×104 t)、水资源供给(×108 ¥)、净化水质(×108 ¥)、调节洪水(×108 ¥)、固碳(×104 t)、释氧(×104 t)和美学景观(×108 ¥)。NW为自然湿地, CW为人工湿地, WEC为湿地生态廊道。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service, and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply (×104 t), water resource supply (×108 ¥), water purification (×108 ¥), flood regulation (×108 ¥), carbon fixation (×104 t), oxygen release (×104 t) and aesthetic landscape (×108 ¥). NW is natural wetland, CW is constructed wetland, and WEC is wetland ecological corridor.
Figure 3. Supply of different ecosystem services for different wetland types in Hebei coastal wetland in 2000 and 2020
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图 4 2000年和2020年河北滨海湿地不同区域的生态系统服务供给量
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务和文化服务; AP 、WR 、PW、RF 、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给(×104 t)、水资源供给(×108 ¥)、净化水质(×108 ¥)、调节洪水(×108 ¥)、固碳(×104 t)、释氧(×104 t)和美学景观(×108 ¥)。CZ为沧州滨海湿地, TQ为唐秦滨海湿地。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service, and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply (×104 t), water resource supply (×108 ¥), water purification (×108 ¥), flood regulation (×108 ¥), carbon fixation (×104 t), oxygen release (×104 t) and aesthetic landscape (×108 ¥). CZ is Cangzhou Coastal Wetland, and TQ is Tangshan and Qinhuangdao Coastal Wetland.
Figure 4. Supply of ecosystem services in different regions of Hebei coastal wetland in 2000 and 2020
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图 5 2000—2020年河北滨海湿地生态系统服务需求量增加率
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务、文化服务; AP、WR、PW、RF、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给、水资源供给、净化水质、调节洪水、固碳、释氧和美学景观。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply, water resource supply, water purification, flood regulation, carbon fixation, oxygen release and aesthetic landscape.
Figure 5. Increase rates of service demand of Hebei coastal wetland ecosystem from 2000 to 2020
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图 6 2000年和2020年河北滨海湿地不同区域的生态系统服务需求量
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务和文化服务; AP 、WR 、PW、RF 、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给(×104 t)、水资源供给(×108 ¥)、净化水质(×108 ¥)、调节洪水(×108 ¥)、固碳(×104 t)、释氧(×104 t)和美学景观(×108 ¥)。CZ为沧州滨海湿地, TQ为唐秦滨海湿地。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply (×104 t), water resource supply (×108 ¥), water purification (×108 ¥), flood regulation (×108 ¥), carbon fixation (×104 t), oxygen release (×104 t) and aesthetic landscape (×108 ¥). CZ is Cangzhou Coastal Wetland, and TQ is Tangshan and Qinhuangdao Coastal Wetland.
Figure 6. Demands for ecosystem services in different regions of Hebei coastal wetland in 2000 and 2020
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图 7 2000年和2020年河北滨海湿地生态系统服务供需比
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务、文化服务; AP、WR、PW、RF、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给、水资源供给、净化水质、调节洪水、固碳、释氧和美学景观。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply, water resource supply, water purification, flood regulation, carbon fixation, oxygen release and aesthetic landscape.
Figure 7. Supply-demand ratios of Hebei coastal wetland ecosystem services in 2000 and 2020
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图 8 2000年和2020年河北滨海湿地不同区域的生态系统服务供需比
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务、文化服务; AP、WR、PW、RF、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给、水资源供给、净化水质、调节洪水、固碳、释氧和美学景观。CZ为沧州滨海湿地, TQ为唐秦滨海湿地。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply, water resource supply, water purification, flood regulation, carbon fixation, oxygen release and aesthetic landscape. CZ is Cangzhou Coastal Wetland, and TQ is Tangshan and Qinhuangdao Coastal Wetland.
Figure 8. Supply-demand ratios of ecosystem services in different regions of Hebei coastal wetland in 2000 and 2020
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图 9 河北滨海湿地不同情景下生态系统服务供给量(a)、需求量(b)及供需比(c)预测
P、R、S和C分别为供给服务、调节服务、支持服务、文化服务; AP、WR、PW、RF、FC、RO和AL分别为水产品供给、水资源供给、净化水质、调节洪水、固碳、释氧和美学景观。情景①为湿地自然发展情景, 情景②为湿地合理开发情景, 情景③为湿地严格保护情景。P, R, S and C are provisioning service, regulating service, supporting service and cultural service; AP, WR, PW, RF, FC, RO and AL are aquatic product supply, water resource supply, water purification, flood regulation, carbon fixation, oxygen release and aesthetic landscape. Scenario ① refers to the natural development of wetlands; Scenario ② refers to the reasonable development of wetlands, and Scenario ③ refers to the strict protection of wetlands.
Figure 9. Forecast of ecosystem service supply (a), demand (b) and supply and demand ratio (c) under different scenarios of Hebei coastal wetland
表 1 河北滨海湿地生态系统服务供给量评估方法
Table 1 Evaluation methods of ecosystem service supply of Hebei coastal wetland ecosystem
生态系统服务
Ecosystem service供给量计算方法
Supply quantity calculation method评估法
Evaluation method供给服务
Provisioning service
(P)水产品供给
Aquatic products supply
(AP, ×104 t)供给量=单位面积水产品供给量×湿地面积
Supply = supply of aquatic products per unit area × wetland area物质量评估
Quality assessment水资源供给
Water resource supply
(WR, ×108 ¥)供给量=单位面积水资源供给服务价值×湿地面积
Supply = the value of water resources supply service per unit area × wetland area价值量评估
Value quantity assessment调节服务
Regulating service
(R)净化水质
Water purification
(PW, ×108 ¥)供给量=单位面积净化水质服务价值×湿地面积
Supply = value of water purification service per unit area × wetland area价值量评估
Value quantity assessment调节洪水
Flood regulation
(RF, ×108 ¥)供给量=单位面积调节洪水价值×湿地面积
Supply = unit area adjusted flood value × wetland area价值量评估
Value quantity assessment支持服务
Supporting service
(S)固碳
Carbon fixation
(FC, ×104 t)供给量=1.63×湿地面积×二氧化碳中碳的含量×单位面积的净初级生产量
Supply =1.63 × wetland area × carbon content in CO2 × net primary productivity (NPP) per unit area物质量评估
Quality assessment释氧
Oxygen release
(RO, ×104 t)供给量=1.19×湿地面积×单位面积的净初级生产量
Supply =1.19 × wetland area × NPP per unit area物质量评估
Quality assessment文化服务
Cultural service
(C)美学景观
Aesthetic landscape
(AL, ×108 ¥)供给量=单位面积文化服务价值×湿地面积
Supply = value of cultural services per unit area × wetland area价值量评估
Value quantity assessment
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表 2 河北滨海湿地生态系统服务需求量估算方法
Table 2 Estimation method for service demand of Hebei coastal wetland ecosystem
生态系统服务
Ecosystem service需求量估算方法
Demand estimation method评估法
Evaluation method供给服务
Provisioning service
(P)水产品供给
Aquatic products
supply (AP, ×104 t)需求量=人均水产品需求量×总人口
Demand = demand for aquatic products per capita × total population物质量评估
Quality assessment水资源供给
Water resource supply
(WR, ×108 ¥)需求量=人均用水量×总人口×水价
Demand = water consumption per capita × total population × water price价值量评估
Value quantity assessment调节服务
Regulating service
(R)净化水质
Water purification
(PW, ×108 ¥)需求量=人均生活用水量×总人口×净化水体价格
Demand = domestic water consumption per capita × total population × water purification price价值量评估
Value quantity assessment调节洪水
Flood regulation
(RF, ×108 ¥)需求量=水利建设当年新增固定资产
Demand = new fixed assets in the water conservancy construction year价值量评估
Value quantity assessment支持服务
Supporting service
(S)固碳
Carbon fixation
(FC, ×104 t)需求量=人均碳需求×总人口
Demand = carbon demand per capita × total population物质量评估
Quality assessment释氧
Oxygen release
(RO, ×104 t)需求量=人均氧气需求×总人口
Demand = oxygen demand per capita × total population物质量评估
Quality assessment文化服务
Cultural service
(C)美学景观
Aesthetic landscape
(AL, ×108 ¥)需求量=人均旅游花费×总人口
Demand = travel cost per capita × total population价值量评估
Value quantity assessment
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表 3 2000年和2020年河北滨海湿地面积
Table 3 Areas of Hebei coastal wetland in 2000 and 2020
km2 滨海地区
Coastal region滨海湿地类型
Coastal wetland type2000 2020 唐秦滨海湿地
Tangshan and Qinhuangdao Coastal Wetland
(TQ)自然湿地 Natural wetland 105.60 28.81 人工湿地 Constructed wetland 112.24 182.41 湿地生态廊道 Wetland ecological corridor 5.27 7.73 湿地总面积 Total wetland area 217.84 211.22 沧州滨海湿地
Cangzhou Coastal Wetland
(CZ)自然湿地 Natural wetland 144.71 99.56 人工湿地 Constructed wetland 127.44 170.81 湿地生态廊道 Wetland ecological corridor 6.47 3.40 湿地总面积 Total wetland area 272.15 270.37
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